Best value round of the year

sherrins

Last week was the first time the weekly punt made a loss; this despite three out of the five bets coming up. That is the nature of the beast, the bookies always take a cut and you need to be a really good punter to come out on top. But it was only a small jab to the cheek, incidental contact and play-on, the weekly punt still has more than tripled its staked amount this year. This week the weekly punt formula has detected a half a dozen line bets offering excellent value which will put it back on the winners list in fine fashion.

The Hawks performances on the betting lines this year has been average, only beating them half the time but last week they beat GWS by 84 points at half pace. While it cost the weekly punt last week, it will not this week. The Suns are having their best ever season, having beaten their previous season record of three wins after only eight rounds but they have lost more key players again. Still, the Hawks will not take the Suns lightly and will be at full throttle as they comeback from their weekend getaway in Launceston. The Hawks line is at only at -66.5 with Betstar at the moment, so take it quickly before the bet of the round balloons out.

It is a pretty simple recurring equation when it comes to Essendon. They are starting to lose players yet again, their mid-form slump has come again and generally speaking the weekly punt thinks the Tigers are a better team. It was proven last year back in round 22 when the Tigers won by 45 points. Expect the same result this week in the Dreamtime match. The line at the moment is +4.5 for the Tigers with Sportsbet but expect that to be closer to even money before Saturday night.

The Dogs are out of form – having lost 17 of their last 18 games – and they have only beaten the betting lines twice this season. They play the Saints who in contrast have beaten the betting lines on five occasions. Last time these two played the Saints won by 76 points. The Dogs are still wounded with several key outs so expect a similar result. The Saints line of -29.5 offered by Betstar is too small considering the Dogs have lost by more than that margin already five times this year.

Fremantle last week were unlucky to take the full chocolates against the Swans at the SCG, but had you had taken the Dockers line the last three weeks you would have taken chocolates each week. Fremantle are in really good form and as stated last week, they are showing to be a premiership contender. Their opponents this week are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Demons are the least competitive team so far this year and expect Lyon’s boys to eat them up in Perth. With Fremantle continually underrated by the betting market expect another week of profit on the line with Betstar offering -61.5 and more easy money.

The Lions are starting to impress after their last fortnight. After beating the Bombers at Etihad last week, they were within a kick of taking the lead late in fourth quarter against the Eagles at Gabba the previous week. The Blues are going to have a tough time at the Gabba and the weekly punt suspects the Lions may just get over the line. Contentious late decisions and draws get always get in the way of a punter’s bet, so betting on the line here is the best bet again. The Lions have beaten the lines the last fortnight and expect them do so again and Sportsbet will give you the best odds at $1.92 and the best line at +16.5.

GWS cost the weekly punt dearly last week but it will not this week as we are betting on them against the Eagles. The Eagles have only beaten the betting lines twice this year, equal least in the AFL. They are just a little overrated as mentioned in previous weeks and this week should be no different. GWS should be able to cover +70.5 offered by Sportsbet with the Eagles missing key outs again.

Normally the weekly punt does not take special offers but Sportsbet are offering money back on head-to-head bets for the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Sydney at MCG. The weekly punt almost took the line but it is very close to its predicted margin. Take the Pies with odds of $1.57 and if they lose by 20 points or less you get your money back. Done deal.

 

Current Betting Fund:  $1,590.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

 

Hawthorn v Gold Coast – Handicap (-66.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar

 

Richmond v Essendon –Handicap (+4.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs– Handicap (-29.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar

 

Fremantle v Melbourne –Handicap (-61.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar

 

Brisbane v Carlton –Handicap (+16.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

GWS v West Coast –Handicap (+70.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Collingwood v Sydney –Head-to-Head– $100 @ $1.57 Sportsbet

 

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

 

Premiership favourites best bets this week

pile of cash

Last week the weekly punt had its best betting round yet and that is saying something as it has yet to post a loss in any week this year. Last week four out the five lines paid out and there are five more lines again this round to double your funds with.

Hawthorn last week was the bet of the round and it is no different this week. The Hawks are in superhot form, having played all of last year’s finalists and are six wins and one loss with the second best percentage to boot. If that is not enough to indicate the gap between them and GWS who lost last week by 135 points then I do not what is. Hawks at Aurora with Sportsbet and the -95.5 line is the bet of the round.

If the Cats did not convince you last week they probably never will. If you are still hopeful about Collingwood chances this year then you must know something the Weekly Punt does not know. The Pies have only beaten the line once this season, equal last in the AFL along with Brisbane. The Cats are way too confident and way too good right now so they should easily account for the -20.5 handicap this week with Sportsbet who offer best value at $1.92.

Fremantle have defied bookmakers twice this year beating the Eagles and the Pies after starting as non-favourites. The play Sydney this week who after a relatively soft draw have shown they cannot dance with the big boys. Fremantle may not yet be a big boy but they are on their way and currently on a roll. Expect this game to go right down to the wire at the SCG. Take the Dockers line with Centrebet who will give you +18.5 head start.

Even though it was only GWS last week, 135 points is still a significant win. What was more significant is that Adelaide found another viable scoring option up forward with Walker out in Lynch booting ten. He will not to that this week against the Saints but the Crows are looking good now. Two weeks before they nearly knocked the premiership favourites Hawthorn at AAMI. Expect another excellent performance from the Crows in front of their supporters and they should easily account for the -22.5 line offered by Sportsbet

The Lions did perform well last week against the Eagles and the bet that was put on them last week was the first time this season they beat the line. This week they face the Dons and the Bombers have hit a bit of a road block after their excellent start. Essendon have not paid out on the line in the last two weeks and usually the trend follows for a third week. The Brisbane +53.5 line is a very good bet this week with Sportsbet.

 

Current Betting Fund:  $1,624.00

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

 

Hawthorn v GWS – Handicap (-95.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Collingwood v Geelong –Handicap (-20.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Sydney v Fremantle– Handicap (+18.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

 

Adelaide v St Kilda –Handicap (-22.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Essendon v Brisbane –Handicap (+53.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

 

Round of the year provides extra value

afl-footy-betting

The Weekly Punt has now more than doubled its amount staked for the year just as promised and just as it was this time last year. This is due to a perfect record of profit each week on the line bets. There should be no drop off as the weekly punt will continue to give the edge in the betting lines with its unique formula. This week provides plenty of value with plenty of grudge matches.

Grand Final replays are always difficult to pick but this year the Swans have not been at their best. Premiership hangovers are usually part and parcel of the AFL. Hawthorn knows that too well and they will want to exact revenge. The Hawks will be way too good for the Swans in front of their home supporters, and the -9.5 line is best taken with Sportsbet at $1.92 and the bet of the round.

Fremantle continue to win without much fuss, and could easily be 5-1 if Mayne (as he usually does) had kicked straight against Essendon. Their only other loss and performance against Hawthorn at Aurora was not too bad either. On the other hand many are tipping Collingwood to be up there at the end of the season when they get a full team back. But that would be to discount that Fremantle have been doing it without some of their star players. Expect Fremantle to easily cover the line against the Pies, as the Pies have only managed to beat it once this year. Freo should win the game so the +6.5 line from Sportsbet provides excellent value this week.

The Eagles may start to get a little overrated now that their big drawcard Naitanui is back. Not saying the dread-locked superstar is not an important player for the Eagles, but they have only beaten Bulldogs and Melbourne so far. The Lions are not travelling any better but they are playing at home and therefore it means Eagles are playing away and we saw what happened last year when these two teams met at the Gabba. Lions are a very good bet this week with Centrebet who will offer a +26.5 handicap.

If the Kangaroos were a good team, last week they would not have just managed to scrape only their second win of the season. The Dogs have not been that bad this year having a very tough draw but equally they have had a fair few players injured. With a few their key classy players back expect a dog-fight for this game, the Dogs +43.5 line is very good bet this week with Sportsbet.

After GWS impressive performance last week against Essendon it appears the market has now swayed back in their favour. Don’t be fooled by last week’s form as it was only the second time this year the Giants had beaten the line. The Crows on the other hand last week almost snatched a win against premiership favourite Hawthorn. Last year the Crows walloped the Giants at Skoda stadium by 119 points and Patton played. Expect Cameron to get double teamed this week and the Crows should not have much problem in beating the -49.5 line offered by Sportsbet.

 

 

Current Betting Fund:  $1,177.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

 

Hawthorn v Sydney – Handicap (-9.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Fremantle v Collingwood –Handicap (+6.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Brisbane v West Coast – Handicap (+26.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

 

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne –Handicap (+43.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

GWS v Adelaide –Handicap (-49.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

Cats money

cat-money

Back after two weeks and the Weekly Punt has three line bets that present really good value. The Weekly Punt has yet to post a loss this year and chances are this week will be no different.

The Cats performed poorly last week but losing Rivers and Caddy early didn’t help matters. Are the Cats currently just doing enough to get four points? Chris Scott will want to make sure that Geelong will not get complacent against the Tigers who are currently on a losing streak and want to get back on the winners list. Therefore the ‘serious’ Cats this week should win by a big margin ala’ Collingwood did to the the Tigers back two weeks ago. An unbeaten run of eight should extend to nine in emphatic fashion, so take Geelong with Betfair who are offering $2 on the -17.5 line and the bet of the round.

The Saints have not been that bad this season despite only notching up one win against GWS. They have been largely competitive in most of their games, only losing three of their games by three goals or under. They have also beaten the betting lines three times this season. Collingwood on the other hand have beaten the betting lines only once, and that was against the Tigers. Collingwood still have some key outs and the +27.5 line for St Kilda with Betsar is still way too large right now.

If there was ever a time for Gold Coast to beat Fremantle it would have to be this week. With Fremantle this week boasting a injury list that their cross-town rivals tend to sport, Gold Coast at home could prove to be too good for the Dockers. Take the safe option and put your money on the +16.5 line for the Suns offered by Betstar.

 

Current Betting Fund:  $859.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

 

Richmond v Geelong – Handicap (-17.5) – $200 @ $2.00 Betfair

Collingwood v St Kilda – (+27.5) – $200 @ $1.90 Betstar

Gold Coast v Fremantle – Handicap (+16.5) – $100 @ $1.90 Betstar

 

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

 

Surely Dees this week

pile of cash

The Weekly Punt continues to make profit betting on the lines and will continue on that path again this week. Although they say that the season is a marathon and not a sprint, when it comes to betting it is not about finishing ahead of any opponent, it is about being on the positive ledger all year. This week we get value on the line in two matches involving Essendon and GWS who are suffering injuries and suspensions.

It is almost impossible to predict which team will perform well in what is billed as the wooden spoon cup but you would think both teams will be keen to impress. If this was at Skoda you could easily be tipping GWS but it is at the MCG and with all the GWS injuries, Melbourne only need to bring their first half form from last week to win comfortably and therefore the bet of the round. Sportsbet is offering you -9.5 for the Dees on the line at $1.92.

Essendon are also on the end of some hefty key outs, so St Kilda this week is good value. Consider that last year the Saints thrashed the Bombers by a whopping 71 points and it should be closer than the +15.5 offered by Sportstbet for the Saints at $1.92.

 

Current Betting Fund:  $859.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

Melbourne v GWS – Handicap (-9.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

St Kilda v Essendon – Handicap (+15.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

 

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

 

Hope remains for Dons and Dees fans

afl-footy-betting

Apologies for not posting any article last week but I’ll promise to have The Weekly Punt up every week just after the teams are out.

(It was partly my fault – Ed.)

The weekly punt has five bets for you this week, but make sure you take them individually and not put on a multi-bet because that way even if only three out of five come up you still win. Then again, the weekly punt never thinks any of the bets will lose so if you’re going to do a multi-bet make sure you do it responsibly.

There is no doubt that Melbourne’s start to the season has been absolutely abysmal. But this week they play a team who have yet to perform well this season. Probably due to their hefty key outs, the Eagles struggled with a 50 point loss last week at their home turf. They won’t have the comfort of their home supporters at the MCG this week and all Melbourne needs to do is get a good first quarter (which you would presume they finally will) and the Eagles will have a nervous match. Centrebet will give you +61.5 point head start if you take the Dees at $1.91 and our bet of the round.

Maybe this is not the right thing to say but Essendon have never been in better condition as they are this week with their injuries. On the other hand their opponents Fremantle still have a few injuries. Both teams have been in red hot form and it’s difficult to separate them given it’s in Perth then. Essendon did show a few weeks ago they can win interstate and last year Essendon did beat Fremantle at Paterson as they won’t mind the long ground. The +13.5 advantage offered by Sportsbet to the Dons at $1.92 is too much an advantage.

If you remember from last year’s articles, we mentioned that Sydney surprisingly paid out on the line more than any other team. Many think the Swans have had a soft draw in their first two rounds but do not be fooled by that. Their thrashing of Gold Coast (who will be no pushover this year) last week in wet conditions was impressive, so expect the Swans to turn up the dial this week against North who are unlucky to be 0-2 but have also shown to be vulnerable. The Swans will put the chokehold on the Roos from the first minute and cruise away well past the -8.5 line offered by Betstar.

The Giants are playing pretty good, a lack of composure allowed Port to get back in the game last week. St Kilda has yet to win a game this year as well so the game should be close. The +30.5 line for GWS offered by Centrebet is just too far in the Saints favour with certain key players still out.

The Q clash should be one of the matches of the round with both teams wanting to bounce back after disappointing losses last week. Brisbane have yet to secure four points this year even after an improved performance last week. The Suns have shown they now like winning at Metricon, so taking the Suns line here should be easy money. Sportsbet will give you a +16.5 head start this week.

 

Current Betting Fund: $286.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

Melbourne v West Coast – Handicap (+61.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

 

Fremantle v Essendon – Handicap (+13.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

North Melbourne v Sydney – Handicap (-8.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Betstar

 

GWS v St Kilda – Handicap (+30.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

 

Gold Coast v Brisbane – Handicap (+16.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

 

 

Bulldogs Best Bet – AFL Round 1 2013

bulldog

After a very profitable 2012 The Weekly Punt is back for another year giving you the best way to use your hard earned money on AFL betting. Every week team’s strengths, expected performance, form lines and various other factors are calculated on each game to work the expected margin. This is then compared to the expected lines found with the current betting markets and whenever large enough discrepancies are found, a tip is given to bet on beating that line. The larger the discrepancy the more is staked, usually because it is more likely to be accurate.

This may seem like 50/50 proposition but most weeks the weekly punt is on the money and the reason why last year we turned $1000 into over $4000 just by beating the betting agencies at their own game. And every week the weekly punt will give you tips on what lines to bet, the amounts and a description the logic formed to arrive at the tip. We also pick one bet as bet of our round.

Usually there is about at least three or four games every week where discrepancies are found, but only one was found this week. Maybe the bookmakers have finally caught up to the Weekly Punt’s assessment of teams? Will see how the year plays out.

If you want to take NAB cup form into full account than of course you may think that Brisbane is heavily favoured to win this, that been said, the Bulldogs did not have such a bad preseason. That’s if you take it into account. Brisbane is still the better team but it is the Bulldogs home game, it should be closer than the +20.5 line offered by Centrebet at $1.91 and the only bet is of course the bet of the round.

Current Betting Fund: – $150.00

Total staked so far: $150.00

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane – Handicap (+20.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

Weekly Punt: Take Hawks and Rioli

Buddy at open training. Credit: Mollyfud of AFLspace.com

Check out the Hawks Google Event: https://plus.google.com/events/ccs2q773hv1l0cvdleabkc0q7gc

If you had taken the Hawks and Swans betting lines this year you would have done very well but not as well as The Weekly Punt. For those that have read all year I’m sure you pleased with having more than quadrupled the return on the intial investment. If you are a late comer you may be wondering what all the fuss is about given the finals tipping has been below par. The Hawthorn line put us back in the red for finals but the tipping has been generally good, with the last two weeks all correct. No line this week, just straight up heads up.

Hawthorn have a couple of things going for them coming into the Grand Final; they are slightly better overall form having lost only once in their last 15 games, and in that one loss it was after the siren to Geelong. Sydney on the other hand lost three of their last four games of the home and away matches coming into the finals. I do not know any team that has won a Grand Final with that record and I have checked back as far 1980.

The other thing in the Hawks’ favour is in their last meeting between the two, Hawthorn managed to beat Sydney at SCG. Now that the game is at neutral ground you expect the Hawks to perform better. So does this mean Sydney is very little chance for Saturday? Not quite.

The Swans have not been a great wet weather team this season but Hawthorn are even worse. Three of Hawthorn’s five losses have come in the wet. The Hawks high possession precise kicking game relies to a certain degree on dry conditions, given there is a forecast for possible hail, the Swans should have a slight edge there if it were to bucket down. Also Hawthorn’s player outs are little more significant than Swans.

So when we look at those things there is probably nothing separating those teams, except one thing. Hawthorn finished the year with their best percentage in their club’s history a good 15% more than the Swans, this with a slightly more difficult draw.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 7 points.

Almost 90% of Norm Smith medalists come from the winning teams. Rioli was the Hawks BOG in their prelim escape against Adelaide. He also scored the highest Champion Data score in a final this year. We know he can perform on the biggest stage and four years later expect another Rioli to light up the MCG.

Current Betting Fund: $4,263.00

Total staked so far: $1,003.50

(Best Market Odds)

Hawthorn  v Sydney – Head-to-Head – $200 @ $1.55 Betfair

Rioli Norm Smith – $100 @ $16 Betfair

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting – for latest odds go to odds.BigFooty.com.

Weekly Punt: Hawks and Swans Best Bets

Footy BettingThe pointy end of the season has finally arrived and when it comes to predicting which two teams will be at the big dance next week it basically comes down to a few simple things; who are best two teams this year, who has had the week off, who has home ground advantage, and who is the fittest. In fact this is no different to how The Weekly Punt generally looks at home and away rounds.

This is why this week we are taking the two best performed teams on beating the betting lines all season.

Hawthorn v Adelaide

Hawthorn are the premiership favourite and rightly so. They have beaten all the other three remaining finalists convincingly except against Sydney they only managed a narrow win but it was at the SCG. They finished the season with easily the best percentage despite a tough draw.

This week Hawthorn is regarded as the shortest favourite for a prelim, this despite their opponents Adelaide finishing second on the ladder only by inferior percentage. Week off, fitter team and home ground advantage will give the Hawks a massive advantage and will do better than the -37.5 line with Betfair offering the best odds at $1.94 and our best bet this week.

Sydney v Collingwood

Like the Hawks, Sydney have beaten the betting line the most this season; 15 times. Collingwood on the other hand have only beaten it eight times, that’s once every three games and the least in the AFL.

Collingwood are a very good team and do have the edge at ANZ stadium but with Sydney better prepared and with less injuries this is the week the Swans break their hoodoo against the Pies. Betfair is offering the best odds again on the -8.5 line at $1.94.

 

Current Betting Fund: $4,369.00

Total staked so far: $1,003.50

Hawthorn  v Adelaide – Handicap (-37.5) – $200 @ $1.94 Betfair

Sydney  v  Collingwood – Handicap (-8.5) – $100 @ $1.94 Betfair

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting – see the latest odds at odds.BigFooty.com

Weekly Punt: Straight Sets Unlikely

The Weekly Punt had an excellent season so far this year in beating the betting market, but last week’s performance in tipping Geelong on the line and our multi-bet were way off the mark. It was the first time The Weekly Punt did not make profit in consecutive weeks but this was an anomaly and it should make amends this week.

Since the inception of the current final eight system only two teams have ever gone out in straight sets. The least unlikely this week to do so is Collingwood. Do not get enamoured by West Coast demolition of North last week. The difference between the Eagles home and away performances is like night and day. The loss of Beau Waters is massive and therefore Collingwood should have more than the edge here. Betstar is offering -3.5 for the Pies at $1.93 and our bet of the round.

Fremantle last week showed they are the real deal by beating last year’s premier in their first ever interstate finals win. So we expect them to really push the Crows, but given the game is in Adelaide we think the Crows will just get up. Best bet here is to take Fremantle with Betfair who are offering +9.5 line at $1.95.

 

Current Betting Fund: $4,329.50.

Total staked so far: $1,003.50

 

Collingwood  v West Coast – Handicap (-3.5) – $150 @ $1.93 Betstar

Adelaide  v  Fremantle – Handicap (+9.5) – $100 @ $1.95 Betfair

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting – for the latest odds go to odds.BigFooty.com.