Round of the year provides extra value

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The Weekly Punt has now more than doubled its amount staked for the year just as promised and just as it was this time last year. This is due to a perfect record of profit each week on the line bets. There should be no drop off as the weekly punt will continue to give the edge in the betting lines with its unique formula. This week provides plenty of value with plenty of grudge matches.

Grand Final replays are always difficult to pick but this year the Swans have not been at their best. Premiership hangovers are usually part and parcel of the AFL. Hawthorn knows that too well and they will want to exact revenge. The Hawks will be way too good for the Swans in front of their home supporters, and the -9.5 line is best taken with Sportsbet at $1.92 and the bet of the round.

Fremantle continue to win without much fuss, and could easily be 5-1 if Mayne (as he usually does) had kicked straight against Essendon. Their only other loss and performance against Hawthorn at Aurora was not too bad either. On the other hand many are tipping Collingwood to be up there at the end of the season when they get a full team back. But that would be to discount that Fremantle have been doing it without some of their star players. Expect Fremantle to easily cover the line against the Pies, as the Pies have only managed to beat it once this year. Freo should win the game so the +6.5 line from Sportsbet provides excellent value this week.

The Eagles may start to get a little overrated now that their big drawcard Naitanui is back. Not saying the dread-locked superstar is not an important player for the Eagles, but they have only beaten Bulldogs and Melbourne so far. The Lions are not travelling any better but they are playing at home and therefore it means Eagles are playing away and we saw what happened last year when these two teams met at the Gabba. Lions are a very good bet this week with Centrebet who will offer a +26.5 handicap.

If the Kangaroos were a good team, last week they would not have just managed to scrape only their second win of the season. The Dogs have not been that bad this year having a very tough draw but equally they have had a fair few players injured. With a few their key classy players back expect a dog-fight for this game, the Dogs +43.5 line is very good bet this week with Sportsbet.

After GWS impressive performance last week against Essendon it appears the market has now swayed back in their favour. Don’t be fooled by last week’s form as it was only the second time this year the Giants had beaten the line. The Crows on the other hand last week almost snatched a win against premiership favourite Hawthorn. Last year the Crows walloped the Giants at Skoda stadium by 119 points and Patton played. Expect Cameron to get double teamed this week and the Crows should not have much problem in beating the -49.5 line offered by Sportsbet.

 

 

Current Betting Fund:  $1,177.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

 

 

Hawthorn v Sydney – Handicap (-9.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Fremantle v Collingwood –Handicap (+6.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Brisbane v West Coast – Handicap (+26.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

 

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne –Handicap (+43.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

GWS v Adelaide –Handicap (-49.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

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