September has finally arrived, spring is in the air and the The Weekly Punt couldn’t be happier after increasing our stake more than four times the original amount since we started back in April. The punters seem to have synchronised to how The Weekly Punt rates the teams so only one line bet was found to be of value this week. Given our huge kitty bank we may as well go against our general philosophy for the finals and take a multi-bet.
Geelong are starting to get into form at the right end of the season. They have lost one game in their last six and that was only by a kick to West Coast in Perth with Hawkins going down in the first quarter. In fact, Geelong in the last 14 games have only lost three. In that time they have beaten Hawthorn, Sydney and Adelaide. Geelong are seriously in contention and this week they have home ground advantage against Fremantle who lost their All-Australian defender in Luke McPharlin. Take the Cats with Sportsbet as they are offering the best line at -21.5 and our bet of the round.
So we are going to take a multi-line bet this week, and here are the reasons why.
There is no doubt Hawthorn has been the best team this season taking the minor premiership but this means little come finals. Hawthorn still have to get over their prelim hoodoo from last year and Collingwood have had a dire run with injury this year and yet finished with one less win than the Hawks. The line should be closer.
With Heath Grundy out now, it’s going to be even more difficult to contain the Adelaide forward line with Walker back in this week. Playing at home is going to be a big advantage for the Crows and Sydney are not coming in with great form. They have lost three of their last six games and no team in the last 20 years has won the premiership with that kind of form. Crows by a couple of goals.
The line for the West Coast v North Melbourne game is just about correct but North has shown that their last two weeks they are not as good as their prior form was suggesting. We give the edge here to the experienced finals campaigners over the new boys on the block.
Current Betting Fund: $4,529.50
Total staked so far: $1,003.50
Geelong v Fremantle – Handicap (-21.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Collingwood (+21.5), Adelaide (-8.5), Geelong (-21.5), West Coast (-27.5) – Multi-Bet $100 @ $13.59 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting. Latest odds at odds.BigFooty.com.