Weekly Punt: Last Round and Still Plenty of Value

The Weekly Punt may be the best kept secret in the AFL as it continues increasing its stake and doing a far better job of predicting margins. It has now beaten the market eight times in the last nine weeks and this week should be no different. If the trend continues it should more than quintuple its initial stake by the end of the season.

GWS winning the wooden spoon this year should be a formality but their year apart from some really bad losses has been pretty good for the teenage side. They play North this week, and both teams have beaten the betting lines 11 times this season. The Kangaroos momentum was stopped last week dead its tracks with a 53 point loss to the Dockers. How then North is expected to thrash a team away this week is baffling. Take GWS at +84.5 this week with our bet of the round.

When both these two teams played on Anzac Day it seemed at the time that they were both heading for top four. How much can change in a few months, but do not be fooled by Collingwood’s poor form. Four of their last five wins have been against the Swans, Saints, Cats, Dockers and Eagles. If a fit Collingwood team is up for the finals they can still go all the way and with Dons out for the count, the Pies should smash them this week. Take Collingwood with Betfair as they will give you the best line at -33.5; they should get well past that even possibly before half-time.

The Hawks last week beat the betting line only just, yet this meant they equalled the Swans and both are outright leaders in this category with 14 each this season. It is always fascinating to why the top two teams on the ladder continue to be underrated in the betting market lines. This Friday night is no different. Hawthorn has their best 22 out there, while the Eagles have several key players still out. Given it is at the MCG, expect the Hawks to take the minor premiership in emphatic fashion. Betfair are offering the best odds at $1.95 for the -26.5 line.

In this dead rubber game between Saints and Carlton, the game has taken an even more eerily ghostly feel with Ratten coaching the last game despite been given marching orders. With little to play for and Carlton still with several key players out (why the Carlton board do not take this into account is disconcerting) expect the margin to be a lot bigger for the Saints as they show no sentiment skipping well past the -4.5 line offered by Centrebet this week.

Fremantle hasn’t exactly been smashing teams this season, they have only managed two wins with more than ten goal margins. Given the Dockers have not beaten the Dees in two years, the +53.5 line for Melbourne seems like a reasonable bet.

Port get some good players back this week, and given they should have won last week against the Lions, they look like they may provide a contest for Tigers. Betfair are offering the best odds for the Power at $1.94 with the +42.5 handicap.

 

Current Betting Fund: $4,569.50. Total staked so far: $1,003.50

 

GWS v North Melbourne – Handicap (+84.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Essendon  v  Collingwood – Handicap (-33.5) – $200 @ $1.90 Betfair

Hawthorn v West Coast – Handicap (-26.5) – $200 @ $1.95 Betfair

Carlton v St Kilda – Handicap (-4.5) – $200 @ $1.91  Centrebet

Fremantle v Melbourne – Handicap (+53.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v Port Adelaide – Handicap (+42.5) – $100 @ $1.94 Betfair

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting – go to odds.BigFooty.com for the latest prices from all the big bookies.

 

 

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