Weekly Punt: Jolly loss, good value

Last week was the 7th time in the last eight weeks The Weekly Punt posted profit. We have now more than quadrupled our stake with this steady increase and this was explained last week with the general philosophy of consistently trying to find value in the odds. Given past history, this week should be no different.

The Eagles are a hard nut to crack in Perth and they face Collingwood who are one of the better performing teams on the road. The problem is that Jolly is out this week for the Pies, giving the best ruck duo in the AFL a huge advantage. Betfair are still offering -3.5 for the Eagles this week, so take it before our bet of the round pushes out.

Two weeks ago Gold Coast broke their Metricon hoodoo and notched up their first win in history at the ground even if it was against GWS. Surely now the Suns believe they are starting to build something there and we expect the margin to be closer than the market suggests. The best line this week is with Centrebet and they will give you +66.5 head start for Gold Coast and they should have that covered all day.

With all the St Kilda outs this week, we expect that GWS will continue their good form of the last three weeks. This will still be a big win but not a thrashing like the line suggests. Centrebet is offering +80.5 for GWS and this should be easy money.

 

Current Betting Fund: $4,407.50. Total staked so far: $1,003.50

 

Carlton v Gold Coast – Handicap (+65.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

West Coast v Collingwood – Handicap (-3.5) – $200 @ $1.90 Betfair

St Kilda v GWS – Handicap (+80.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

0 Replies to “Weekly Punt: Jolly loss, good value”

    1. It’s one thing wanting to get percentage, it’s another actually getting it. The Blues have been a pretty good team this year, mainly hampered by unfortunate circumstances like injuries but the Suns in the last nine weeks have been pretty good; their only real bad loss was against the Eagles.

      Last week they only lost to the Hawks by 64 points, and I weight home-ground advantage highly, so you would think that thy should get within that margin at Metricon.

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