Weekly Punt: Take GWS Line

Last week was the first time we didn’t profit after a hattrick of positive results the previous three weeks. In fact in two of the lines that didn’t come up, the lines were covered to the very last second. In one game we were beaten by a kick after the siren. It just shows that the Weekly Punt may post a loss every now and again but when it does it barely dents our fund. 

Have the Pies giving up on making up percentage? They are resting way too many players and it may cost if GWS give them a scare with a lot their good players back. Last week GWS almost had their line covered after playing away to Fremantle. The Pies are not in great form any longer and while many punters are predicting another smashing were banking GWS to get well within the +88.5 handicap offered only by Sportsbet and out bet of the round. (Interestingly before the teams were out, the Pies vs GWS 95.5 line was the biggest line of the year).

The Roos are flying having won five of their last six games. They have also beaten the line in four of the last five games, only narrowly missing out last week by a point. With the Dees still having multiple outs the -43.5 line offered by Sportsbet this week for the Kangaroos should be well covered by the final whistle.

Can the best team on the line this year beat the line for a record 8th consecutive week? The Hawks have won their last seven games by almost 80 points and expect them to beat the -30.5 offered by Centrebet against the Bombers on Friday night with their captain back as well.

The Adelaide Crows are the third best performing team on the line this year and they face the Cats who are worst at the line this year. Geelong still has significant outs, while Adelaide gets Walker back. Last time these two met in Adelaide the game was effectively over at half time and the Crows won by 50 points. Expect another Crows win to virtually cement a home final. The –+6.5 handicap for Adelaide this week is a good bet.

The last time Richmond has beaten Carlton was almost six years ago. Despite been a close game for most of the match back in round 1, the Blues still blew out the lead by 43 points and the end and so it appears they still have the wood over them. Carlton should win and the +6.5 line should easily be covered for the whole game.

 

Current Betting Fund: $3,598.50. Total staked so far: $1,003.50

 

GWS v Collingwood – Handicap (+88.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

North Melbourne v Melbourne – Handicap (-43.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Essendon v Hawthorn – Handicap (-30.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Geelong v Adelaide – Handicap (+6.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Carlton v Richmond – Handicap (+6.5) – $100 @ $1.98 Betfair

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

Latest odds: http://odds.bigfooty.com

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