Weekly Punt: The Swans Again

Yet again the market which is largely dictated by the southern states continues to underrate the Swans. With the best defence in the comp, the second best percentage, after beating West Coast at their home turf by 52 points and currently on top of the AFL ladder, you would think punters would take them more seriously.

They play the Saints who barely managed to scrape a win against Brisbane last week and now have to travel back up to Sydney. The -17.5 line offered by Sportsbet for the Swans is just not right and will continue to have to take advantage of it as the Weekly Punt bet of the round for the third consecutive week. 

Let’s hope third time is a charm with GWS this week. We have taken their lines in the last fortnight for only to be well beaten before the final whistle. Surely the team that was leading the betting line for most of the year will now arrest the run of blowouts.

Fremantle under Ross Lyon have not beaten anyone by more than 40 points this season. Yes it’s GWS, and the Dockers should record their biggest win of the season, but not bigger than +86.5 line offered by Centrebet for the Giants this week.

The Hawks this year have been impressive on the line, bettering the line margin 11 times out of the fifteen games – the best in league. Conversely, the four times they didn’t, they lost each of those games.

They play The Pies who have won 11 of their last 12 games and in contrast, have only beaten the betting line five times this season.

It’s understandable the punters can’t seem to split the two outright premiership favourites. Will Hawthorn’s Hyde or Jekyll turn up? Will Collingwood grind out another win? The Hawks are in slightly better form and playing that little bit better so take the $1.87 for the win here with Sportsbet.

The Eagles outs are starting to take their toll, they have now lost four of their last nine games. They travel to Adelaide and play the Crows a team who has only lost two games in their last 12 matches. Adelaide should be too strong here so take -14.5 line offered by Sportsbet.

Surprisingly, Carlton has beaten the betting lines eight times this season. With several key players out for The Blues this week they should not win by more than a few goals against The Bulldogs. The +15.5 handicap is a good bet this week for the Doggies.

The injury list for Melbourne continues to get larger and also hitting more of their key players. Port Adelaide are not in great form but their list is a little closer to full strength this week. The Power should beat the depleted Dees by more than the -7.5 handicap offered by Sportsbet.

Both the Tigers and the Kangaroos were in the news for different reasons this week. Expect both clubs to come out firing as they try put things behind them and secure a spot in the finals.

Richmond has not beaten the line in their last five games (the worst in the AFL in that time), while North has beaten the line in their last four. Given that Richmond still has several more players out the market is still overrating that this will be a close game so expect the lead to blow out in North’s favour. The Shinboners are back and we will take them with Sportsbet who are offering a generous -4.5 handicap here.

The Cats have been the worst performing team on the line this year beating it only three times this season and only once in their last 12 matches. Essendon have beaten the line nine times and it shows with consistently impressive performances this year. Betfair is giving a very short line for Essendon at only -3.5.

Current Betting Fund: $3,608.00. Total staked so far: $1,003.50

 

Sydney v St Kilda – Handicap (-17.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

GWS v Fremantle – Handicap (+86.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Collingwood v Hawthorn –Head-to-Head- $150 @ $1.87 Sportsbet

Adelaide v West Coast – Handicap (-14.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Western Bulldogs v Carlton – Handicap (+15.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Melbourne v Port Adelaide – Handicap (-7.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v North Melbourne – Handicap (-4.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Sportsbet

Essendon v Geelong – Handicap (-3.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Betfair

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

EDIT: Port Adelaide bet was shown as $2150 when it should be $150.

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