Weekly Punt: Lines are Sure Thing

As expected we made profit again last week, almost tripling our total bets for the year.  If we make profit again this week, the bookmakers may need to take notice of the Weekly Punt. 

The Swans are maybe the most underrated side in the AFL. This year they have beaten the line eight times and have been very impressive for most of the season. The line this week has overcompensated for Brisbane after their demolishing of the injured Dees, so Sydney at -32.5 this week is the bet of the round.

The Eagles this week face the new rampaging North Melbourne team. The Eagles last win away from Perth was back against The Tigers in round 5, and even in that game Richmond should’ve won. The week after they only beat The Roos at home by four goals. The Roos have yet to lose a game at home by more than 19 points this season but given their new form we expect North to make it four wins in a row. The Kangaroos +15.5 at the line should be a sure thing.

Port is still at half strength and that they could only get within three goals of The Crows in the derby earlier this year. Therefore, the -25.5 handicap offered by Sportsbet for The Crows this week should be easy money yet again.

Richmond has not paid out on the line for their last three games and with their numerous outs, expect Melbourne who have paid out on the line three times in the last four weeks, to get well within the -33.5 handicap offered by Sportsbet.

Both The Hawks and GWS have paid out on the lines the most this season, so who ever beats the line here this week becomes the outright line leader. It’s very hard to gauge for punters which way to go but when GWS has only lost by more than 92 points in only three games this season and Hawthorn only won by more than that margin only once this season, than +92.5 handicap by Sportsbet for GWS is the only logical bet you can make.

 

Sydney v Brisbane – Handicap (-32.5) – $200 @ $1.92  Sportsbet

North Melbourne v West Coast – Handicap (+15.5) – $200 @ $1.92  Sportsbet

Port Adelaide v Adelaide – Handicap (-25.5) – $200 @ $1.92  Sportsbet

Melbourne v Richmond – Handicap (+33.5) – $200 @ $1.92  Sportsbet

Hawthorn v GWS – Handicap (+92.5) – $150 @ $1.92  Sportsbet

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

 

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