Weekly Punt: Hawks Value

Our two bets on the line did not come up last week but have still doubled our funds for the year. The Weekly Punt always follows up with a good week of profit after a poor week the previous week. 

The Hawks are starting to hit form in the last couple of weeks, easily beating the lines. This is usually a good sign as teams who have beaten two initial consecutive lines then usually keep that from for a third week running. The Lions may have beaten West Coast in their last game, but the opposition were missing almost half their team so expect another thrashing by the fit Hawks (who have paid out on the line seven times this year). Centrebet are offering -48.5 handicap for the brown and gold.

The Kangaroos this week front up against Gold Coast. Both these teams have paid out on the line only three times this year, but The Suns still have significant outs. We haven’t bet on The Roos at all this year, but when they have played the teams below them they have thrashed them. Gold Coast should be better than 95 point loss to St Kilda last week, but The Roos will still win by more than -37.5 handicap offered by Sportsbet.

St Kilda has an almost a full strength side this week, while Adelaide has finally picked up a few injuries. The Saints have a good record against The Crows, last year they thrashed them by 100 plus points. We expect this to go the wire, and with showers forecasted, take the line with Centrebet with a +15.5 handicap.

In might surprise you to hear that The Blues have paid out on the line more often than West Coast this year. The injury lists are now the same and both get crucial players back this week, but more importantly for Carlton, Carazzo is back after a long-term injury. Last year the team that came off the bye had an average handicap of -8 points per game. With that in mind we will take Carlton on the line with Betfair and a +26.5 handicap.

 

Current Betting Fund: $2,080.5. Total staked so far: $1,003.5

Hawthorn v Brisbane – Handicap (-48.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Gold Coast v North Melbourne – Handicap (-36.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

 Adelaide v St Kilda – Handicap (+15.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Centrebet

West Coast v Carlton – Handicap (+26.5) – $100 @ $1.76 Betfair

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

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