Last week was an excellent display of betting for the weekly punt. After a poor week the previous week, we followed by a flawless six lines correct out of six. This means we have more than doubled our total stake for the year.
The split round this week meant we only found a couple of teams as value on the line.
This week Carlton and Geelong play in a season defining game. Both teams have underperformed for the year, especially of recent due to their dire injury lists. This has reflected in the line betting; Geelong has not paid out the last six consecutive weeks, while Carlton have paid out only once in the last five weeks and it was against Melbourne, and in that game it took the last minutes for Carlton to beat that line.
We expect something has to give. Carlton still have many more significant outs, and Geelong should really prove to be too good come Friday night. Sportsbet is offering a tantalising -14.5 handicap for the reigning premiers.
The second worst performing team on the line this year in Fremantle will travel to the MCG (a ground The Dockers win as often as The Queen has jubilees) to play Richmond, the best performing team on the line this year. Richmond haven’t really thrashed anybody besides Port this year, but the -30.5 handicap offered by Sportsbet is still really good value.
Current Betting Fund: $2,430.5. Total staked so far: $1,003.5
Carlton v Geelong – Handicap (-14.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Richmond v Fremantle – Handicap (-30.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet