Weekly Punt: Lions Value

Last week was an abysmal round for the Weekly Punt. Not only was it the first weekly loss, only one line came up. We can take one loss every now and again, so hopefully we will be back on the winner’s list this week. 

Both Brisbane and West Coast have paid on the line the last two weeks. The market has underrated them, but The Lions’ last win at home – even if it was against GWS – was by nearly by 100 points.

With Luke Shuey and Sam Butler to add to West Coast’s dire injury list, the game should be closer than the line suggests and we will take Brisbane on this one.

Collingwood the last three weeks have paid out on the line, while Gold Coast in the same time has done the opposite. This appears to be a no brainer, Collingwood will win and at home they should be better than the -64.5 handicap offered by Sportbet.

Carlton is still missing key players, while Port Adelaide has finally started to regain some form with two wins in a row. At home Port is no pushover; their only poor performance was against the Tigers who are now in very good form. Port on the line should be another safe bet.

The Swans are underrated, everybody forgets that about a month ago, they comfortably beat then premiership favourite Hawthorn down at fortress Aurora.

Swans at home should be way too good for The Dogs and we will take them with only -23.5 handicap with Sportsbet.

Richmond has come off their best win of the season and they have also paid out on the line seven times this year, equal with GWS.

St Kilda is still without their top two ruckmen, so expect Maric to dominate again. Richmond at +2.5 with Betfair at $1.95 on the line will have you singing yellow and black.

Fremantle in their last two weeks have been very poor, and is up against an almost fully fit Adelaide. We don’t think Fremantle will get within the -9.5 handicap come the final whistle.

Current Betting Fund: $911.50. Total staked so far: $1,018

Brisbane v West Coast – Handicap (+29.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Sydney v Western Bulldogs – Handicap (-23.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Collingwood v Gold Coast – Handicap (-64.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Port Adelaide v Carlton – Handicap (+19.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

St Kilda v Richmond – Handicap (+2.5) – $200 @ $1.95 Betfair

Fremantle v Adelaide – Handicap (-9.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

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