Last week we tipped four out of six lines correct, and all our value bets came up. This meant we continue to beat the market on the betting lines, and in three weeks we have almost doubled our betting fund.
Six lines this week and injuries have yet again influenced our tips.
The Swans this week travel to Melbourne to play the Saints. While the Swans record in Melbourne is abysmal, Saints travelled to Perth last week, and most teams who travel back from WA tend to underperform the following week. In the last five weeks the Saints have paid out on the line only once, which included a three goal win against the Demons. In contrast, the Swans have paid out on the line more times than not this year and will definitely be better than -2.5 handicap against St Kilda who have their best two ruckmen out with injury.
Port Adelaide has surely gained some much needed confidence in last week’s comeback of the season against the Kangaroos. Gold Coast have not won a game all season, and they been thrashed more times than not. Port on the other hand has been close in most of their games this season. Port will be better than -12.5 handicap.
The bookies premiership favourite Hawthorn is finally hitting form. The Hawks have paid off on the line the last three times, and come up against Richmond this week. The Tigers had another close game against the Bombers last week and it appears that betting market has finally started rate them correctly. Last week was the first time since round one that Richmond had not paid out on the line. The overcorrection means Hawthorn should be way too good with Grimes out for the Tigers this week, so expect the Hawks forward line to have field day.
Fremantle has the better recent record in The Western Derby, and while they were thrashed by Hawthorn last week, they did come off an additional two day break, otherwise Fremantle had not been beaten by more than eight points in any game this season. We will definitely take Fremantle on the line with a +19.5 start.
The Crows are the form team of the competition and they have paid out on the line the last four consecutive weeks. The Pies have also turned it around but this week they lose Swan and Reid. Too many key players to cover for the injury depleted Pies at the moment, and will take a healthy and fit Adelaide in a convincing win.
Were not convinced the reigning premiers are done with yet. The Bulldogs have hit some good form but Geelong welcome back Scarlett this week. That’s enough for us to take The Cats on the line this week.
Current Betting Fund: $1477.50. Total staked so far: $779.5
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – Handicap (-13.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
St Kilda v Sydney – Handicap (-2.5) – $200 @ $2.02 Betfair
Adelaide v Collingwood – Handicap (-13.5) – $150 @ $2.00 Betfair
Richmond v Hawthorn – Handicap (-22.5) – $150 @ $1.96 Betfair
West Coast v Fremantle – Handicap (+19.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Western Bulldogs v Geelong – Handicap (-28.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting