Weekly Punt: Pies Overrated

Last week we tipped three out of five lines correct, but because our value bet in Sydney did not come up we only ended up breaking even.

This week we have two value bets. Our first one is Brisbane Lions on the line. Betfair is offering +30.5 handicap at $1.78. They are playing Collingwood who is the only team this year to not have paid out the line. Ben Johnson is also out this week and Jolly has not made his way back. Expect a close game.

Our other value bet is the Kangaroos with Centrebet offering -16.5 on the line. North have a full squad to select from, while the Bulldogs have three more players out this week. With an already heavily crippled defence expect North’s talls to put a big score at Etihad.

Essendon vs West Coast could be the match of the round. It’s unthinkable that an undefeated team starts as the non-faovurite but The Eagles are boasting the most dire injury list of all the teams in the AFL. The last four rounds The Eagles have not paid out on the line, while in that time Essendon has paid out every time. Betfair is offering the best handicap for The Bombers of -4.5 at $1.70.

The Hawks also look good this week. Believe it or not, Hawks have been undervalued by the betting market this year. They have paid out on the line four times in the first six rounds. Expect a bigger margin than the -48.5 vs Melbourne this week offered by Sportsbet.

Fremantle this week get the no.1 ruckman in the league back. Back at home against a dispirited Port, they should be better than the -31.5 handicap Centrebet is offering.

We have another possible match of the round this week with Richmond vs Sydney. The current betting market can’t seem to split the two but The Tigers have paid out on the line more than any other team this year and are still undervalued. Swans have lost Goodes and LRT and Tigers should get up at home. Betfair is offering the best odds for The Tigers head to head at $1.99.

 

Current Betting Fund: $670.50. Started with $500. (Staked an additional $279.50 this week).

 

Brisbane v Collingwood – Handicap(+30.5) – $200 @ $1.78 Betfair

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Handicap(-16.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Essendon v West Coast – Handicap(-4.5) – $150 @ $1.71 Betfair

Fremantle v Port Adelaide – Hanidcap(-31.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Melbourne v Hawthorn – Handicap(-48.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v Sydney – Richmond – Head to Head – $100 @ $1.99 Befair

 

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting.

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