Our first weekly punt started well as we managed to make a profit betting on two of the three lines we that we took. GWS and Richmond both came up, and these teams have payed on the line three times in the first four rounds.
The Fremantle line almost came up, a goal at the end could’ve made it three out of three for the week.
This week our value bet is the Swans against the Crows at SCG. They have paid out the last 4 weeks on the line, they also thrashed premiership favourite Hawthorn, the same Hawks who thumped Adelaide two weeks before, and almost beat the other uneaten team the Eagles over at Paterson. The line is only at -25.5 for the Swans with Sportsbet.
We will also take GWS this week, as they have a massive -86.5 handicap against the Blues, who have Judd, Waite and Kruzer out, on top of still having Carazzo and Yarran out.
There is probably trepidation with GWS still when they lost to the Kangaroos by over 100+ points a few weeks back, but they have paid on the line each and every other week.
Geelong is starting to look good again and should be better than the -55.5 handicap against Melbourne that Sportsbet is offering.
We are also taking Essendon this week against Brisbane who looked very poor against Geelong last week. Bombers have payed out on three of five lines so far this year. Line is at -30.5 for Essendon at $1.95 with Betfair.
Eagles have only paid out on the line in their first two rounds. While they are 5-0 they now lost Kennedy as well, and the injuries are starting to mount. Having only just beat Richmond, we will take the Kangaroos on the line who have a good record over there. Kangaroos are currently +26.5 on the line with Betfair.
Current Betting Fund: $670.50 (Started with $500).
Sydney v Adelaide – Handicap(-25.5) at $1.92 – $200 Sportsbet
Carlton v Greater Western Sydney – Handicap(+86.5) –at $1.92 $150 Sportsbet
Geelong v Melbourne – Handicap(-55.5) at $1.92 – $120 Sportsbet
Essendon v Brisbane – Handicap(-30.5) at $1.95 – $100 Betfair
Eagles v Kangaroos – Handicap(+26.5) at $1.82 – $100 Betfair
(Bet is on team in bold)
*Odds correct at time of posting.