Welcome to our first weekly punt. Each week we’ll give you some valuable insights into the AFL betting market and give you the punter, the edge that you need.
Our value bet this week is Richmond on the line.
For the last three weeks the betting market has underrated Richmond on the line, paying out each time.
So far this year they have had close games against Carlton, Collingwood and Geelong which suggests they are little unlucky to be 1-3.
West Coast has carried good form and is now 4-0 but has played GWS, Melbourne and Bulldogs. Last week against their first real test in the Hawks, they managed to just pip them over at home. Take Richmond with Sportsbet at $1.92 with a +19.5 line against West Coast.
Tonight’s game with Fremantle and Carlton looks to be a cracker. Sandilands out will no doubt hurt Fremantle but Carlton have even more significant outs with Yarran, Carazzo and Laidler absent this week.
Fremantle managed to do the job against Geelong last time at Patersons and no home team has lost there this year. Betfair are offering very good value at $2.22 with Fremantle at +4.5 at the line.
GWS has been an unknown quantity and so far this season they have payed out on the line 3 out of 4 times. This week they play the Bulldogs who have only managed to beat Melbourne to date. This should be a close game and GWS has managed to win a quarter in nearly every game this season. Take GWS with Centrebet who is offering +64.5 on the line at $1.91.
Our betting pool:
$200 on the Richmond +19.5 line at $1.92 with Sportsbet.
$150 on the Fremantle +4.5 line at $2.22 with Betfair.
$150 on the GWS +64.5 Line at $1.91 with Centrebet.